1. Black (5 3) 8/3 6/3

Move 1 White





 
Pip: 167
 
Pip: 159
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 24/23 13/9 -0.136
  2 3 13/8 -0.157 (-0.021)
* 3 3 24/20 24/23 -0.162 (-0.026)

Checker play
Last time Paul did not play 2 up an made a mistake, this time he plays 2 up and makes mistake too. The difference is that here he has a good plan B, while the previous leaving a blot on the 9 point with a 34 was unnecessary in view of the two-up candidate-move.


2. Black (5 4) 24/20 13/8
  White (4 2) 8/4 6/4
3. Black (6 5) 24/13
  White (6 3) 23/20 13/7
4. Black (3 2) 20/18*/15
  White (4 4) bar/21 13/9(2) 9/5
5. Black (4 3) 15/8
  White (3 1) 6/3 6/5

Move 6 Black





 
Pip: 145
 
Pip: 127
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 13/8 3/2 0.473
* 2 3 8/2 0.431 (-0.042)
  3 2 6/1 3/2 0.223 (-0.250)

Checker play
Black does not need to hit a blot in the outfield, but he needs a robust position. The more checkers on the 8 and 6 points, the more robust the position. Points will come.


  White (6 1) 9/3 8/7
7. Black (6 5) 13/2
  White (4 4) 20/16(2) 13/9(2)

Move 8 Black





 
Pip: 122
 
Pip: 110
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 13/11(4) 0.855
* 2 3 13/11(2) 6/4*(2) 0.826 (-0.029)
  3 3 8/6 6/4*(3) 0.765 (-0.090)

Checker play
Snowie 3 ply evaluation seems to be wrong here. It says 13/4(4) is best, but a mini rollout of the resulting positions after the actual 6/4(2)* 13/11(2) and the Snowie 14/11(4) turns to 0.070 in favor of the actual move. A lot.
Black has lots of approaches here. He can play for undoubled gammon if white fans. He can double white out in a simple racing position. He can double white in for a gammon match winner.
Positions where it is often difficult to conceive the doubling window. In fact the undoubled gammon for black is not such a big miss (1 away 6 away crawford would be a near gin). The 9-to-5 approach is to play for undoubled gammon and reconsider in the final racing phase.


  White (6 2) Can't move






 
Pip: 126
 
Pip: 102
 

9. Black Double
  White Pass

Cube action equity
3-Ply Money equity: 0.702
  0.7%  22.1%  75.5%    24.5%   3.4%   0.1%
1. Double, pass 1.000
2. No double 0.910 (-0.090)
3. Double, take 1.194 (+0.194)
Proper cube action:   Double, pass

DA wins 1 point.

This file has been generated by Snowie Version 3.0, a product of Oasya SA
Output date: 3:59:33 PM, 2/15/2004(Export v2.10)