White (5 2) 13/8 13/11
2. Black (4 3) 13/9 13/10
  White (4 1) 11/7 8/7
3. Black (5 1) 10/5 6/5
  White (6 5) 24/13
4. Black (5 3) 8/3 6/3
  White (6 3) 24/15
5. Black (3 2) 24/22 13/10*
  White (3 1) bar/24 13/10
6. Black (3 3) 13/7(2)
  White (5 5) 8/3*(2) 6/1*(2)
7. Black (4 2) bar/21 bar/23






 
Pip: 121
 
Pip: 127
 


Cube action equityAlert: Missed double
Mini-Rollout Money equity: -0.057
  0.8%  20.5%  45.7%    54.3%  17.6%   0.8%
1. Double, take 0.305
2. No double 0.201 (-0.103)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.695)
Proper cube action:   Double, take


Cube action
An interesting cube action problem here. White is the underdog TO WIN this game.
At this score 4 away 2 away, after a double and a take gammons for black will be killed, while gammons for white will win the match for him. So a doubled game is highly favorable to white. By how much? By the sum of the gammons for both sides expected.
In this double gammonish position white is expected to win 45% of the time, but nearly half of them (20% of the time) gammons, black will win 55% and 17% gammons.
If white doubles he would be rewarded with 45p + 20p. own gammons + 17p. killed enemy gammons = 82p against white's 55 bare game winning chances. 82-55= 0.27 advantage. I wish I had with me Danny Kleinmann's formula for doubling and takes considering killing gammons, but I don't remember the book, he wrote so many! And I was lazy then. In this post mortem I see that 27 percentage points advantage to the trailer at 4a2a is enough to double the opponent in. Come on Danny, where are you now, help me.
Paul missed this fine double.

  White (6 2) 10/4* 6/4

8. Black (4 2) bar/23 9/5
  White (2 1) 24/23 8/6
9. Black (6 3) 8/2* 5/2
  White (5 2) Can't move

Move 10 Black





 
Pip: 112
 
Pip: 116
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 10/4 0.011
* 2 3 10/5 8/7 -0.041 (-0.052)
  3 3 10/5 6/5 -0.155 (-0.166)

Checker play
In prime vs. prime games when there are one or two checkers left to play with, checkers are given enormous amount of work - here the 4 point should be slotted. If not hit, black will have a big chance to cover it with a tripple shot. If hit, black will lose the game, probably a simple.


  White (1 1) bar/24 13/12(3)
11. Black (1 1) 7/5 5/4(2)
  White (4 1) 12/7

Move 12 Black





 
Pip: 103
 
Pip: 106
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 23/15 1.053
* 2 3 23/20 6/1* 0.976 (-0.077)
  3 1 7/4 6/1* -0.038 (-1.091)

Checker play
Hitting on the ace point here may be right if it brings enough gammons. It brings about 7% more gammons but they don't seem enough. Black wins 3.5% less agmes and the price of gammon is.... What is the price of gammon here?
Ok, why does black win less games after the hit on the ace point? Because, when white returns, he can attack his own 5 point and perhaps form a 5 prime of his own.
This is remote and the chances are white will increase his winning chances by 3.5% only, but this is enough to offset the increase of black gammons.


  White (3 1) bar/24* 7/4
13. Black (6 5) bar/20 23/17
  White (5 2) 6/1 4/2
14. Black (6 3) 20/11
  White (6 1) 7/1 7/6
15. Black (4 3) 11/4
  White (5 3) 6/1 4/1
16. Black (6 5) 17/6
  White (6 3) 12/6 4/1
17. Black (5 2) 20/13*
  White (4 2) Can't move

Move 18 Black





 
Pip: 82
 
Pip: 77
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 13/10 7/4 4/1*(2) 1.697
  2 3 7/1*(2) 1.695 (-0.002)
* 3 3 13/1* 1.665 (-0.031)

Checker play
Playing for a third prisoner is risky and decreases both expected wins and expected gammons. The simple making of hte ace point wins about 46% gammons because of white's board instead of the usual 40% with a perfect white board.


  White (6 5) Can't move
19. Black (6 4) 7/1 7/3
  White (6 1) Can't move
20. Black (6 1) 6/off 3/2
  White (2 1) Can't move
21. Black (5 1) 5/off 5/4
  White (2 2) Can't move

Move 22 Black





 
Pip: 83
 
Pip: 42
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 4/off(4) 1.997
* 2 3 6/2(2) 4/off(2) 1.907 (-0.090)
  3 1 6/2 4/off(3) 1.420 (-0.577)

Checker play
The gammon is close and black should take a miniscule chance.
This time black is way off the mark. Instead of burying checkers in graveyard 2, he can take 4 and benefit from white's crunched position and a blot on the deuce.
But he should have read Magriel's Backgammon.


  White (5 4) bar/20
23. Black (4 2) 4/off 4/2
  White (4 2) bar/21 20/18
24. Black (3 3) 3/off(2) 2/off(2)
  White (4 1) 21/16
25. Black (3 2) 2/off(2)
  White (6 2) 18/10
26. Black (6 3) 2/off(2)
  White (6 4) 16/6
27. Black (5 2) 1/off(2)
DA wins 2 points.

This file has been generated by Snowie Version 3.0, a product of Oasya SA
Output date: 3:59:34 PM, 2/15/2004(Export v2.10)