White (6 4) 24/18 13/9
2. Orange (6 1) 13/7* 8/7
  White (3 3) bar/22 24/21 6/3(2)
3. Orange (6 5) 24/13

Move 3 White





 
Pip: 152
 
Pip: 149
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 21/15 13/9 0.045
    0.3%  10.9%  51.7%    48.3%   9.0%   0.3%
  2 3 22/16 13/9 0.026 (-0.019)
    0.3%  10.2%  51.6%    48.4%   9.9%   0.3%
* 3 3 21/11 0.015 (-0.031)
    0.3%  10.4%  50.9%    49.1%   9.9%   0.3%
Kit does not like the 9 point being 6 away form his 3 point, but two blots in the outfield leave 10 very good hitting numbers to the desperate white prisoner on the ace point plus the numbers pointing on the white straggler or even hitting lose.
Better is making the 9 point and a jump over the mini block. 21/15 is better because it leaves less double-hit numbers.


4. Orange (1 1) 24/23 6/5(3)

Move 4 White





 
Pip: 142
 
Pip: 145
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 13/9 13/11 0.029
    0.4%  11.1%  51.9%    48.1%  11.1%   0.3%
  2 3 13/9 11/9 -0.002 (-0.031)
    0.3%   9.4%  50.2%    49.8%   9.2%   0.2%
* 3 3 11/7 9/7 -0.021 (-0.051)
    0.3%   9.1%  49.7%    50.3%   9.7%   0.3%
Very interesting 1 vs 1 back checkers, 2 vs 2 boards.
Four approaches here with substantial difference in equity.
1. Make an inside point, filling the prime, but stripping the 6 and 8 points and leaving blots. 8 shots almost win for Black.
2. Make the bar point, filling the prime, but failing to bring down any builder and making it difficult to make an additional inside point.
3. Play 11/9, 13/9 threatening to make amy of the open bar, 5, or 4 points or escape the straggler.
4. Make 2 outfield points thereby making all escape attempts except the 55 meet a very strong opposition.
The 4th opition is the best. This makes the position a good problem.
Difficult to assess.


Move 5 Orange





 
Pip: 136
 
Pip: 145
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 23/16 -0.013
    0.2%   6.1%  50.1%    49.9%   8.1%   0.2%
* 2 3 13/6 -0.068 (-0.055)
    0.3%   9.5%  46.1%    53.9%   9.4%   0.3%
  3 2 13/9 13/10 -0.116 (-0.103)
    0.2%   9.6%  45.4%    54.6%  12.6%   0.3%
2 pips behind, but I need to utilize the jumping number. The runner also covers outfield. The builder can wait.
Playing 23/16 would also be a partial refutation of White's mistake on the previous roll, failing to make two outside points.


  White (3 1) 8/5 6/5
6. Orange (4 1) 13/8
  White (4 4) 8/4(2) 6/2*(2)
The timing changes. White must make the 4 point. He now has less chances to hold the blockade and more chances to be attacked because of his racing lead. In such a case, the four point is very important.
The remaining two 4s may be played:
13/5, 13/9(2) or 19/23(2)*.
13/5 is the weakest because it brings a checker behind the target 8 point.
I would play automatically 13/9(2), but that is because shifting from the 6 point is so uncommon. This is a world master play, giving some support to the vulnerable white checker on Black's 3 point.

7. Orange (6 2) bar/19 8/6
  White (4 3) 13/6*
8. Orange (5 1) bar/19*
  White (4 3) bar/22 13/9
9. Orange (3 3) 19/16*/13 13/10(2)
  White (3 2) bar/22 7/5






 
Pip: 132
 
Pip: 115
 

10. Orange Double
  White Pass

Cube action equity
3-Ply Money equity: 0.640
  0.2%   6.7%  79.5%    20.5%   1.9%   0.0%
Double decision Good enough: Huge  
  Too good to double: 0%  
Take decision Current Cube Doubled Cube Borderline
Equities 0.647 0.643 0.537
Proper cube action:   Double, pass

Lost my market.

svilo wins 1 point.

This file has been generated by Snowie Professional EditionVersion 1.1, a product of Oasya SA
Output date: 9:56:09 PM, 2/26/99