1. Orange (2 1) 24/23 13/11
  White (6 5) 24/13
2. Orange (5 3) 8/3 6/3
  White (3 2) 13/8
Interesting. Race is even. White has the one-man-back asset. Black has a 2vs1 board asset plus a tremendous diversification.
Three options here:
Play safe - 13/8
Diversify and stay back - agressive 13/11, 13/10
Compromise - 24/21, 13/11
The safe play does not jeopardise the one-man-back asset, waits for fly shots, runnung and point making numbers and, in a way, safeties the lonely blot. In some variations Black may "get mad" and start a blitz if White has blots. It is important to "vision" such plays.

3. Orange (4 2) 8/4 6/4
  White (5 1) 24/23 13/8
4. Orange (1 1) 8/6 6/5(2)
There is a very fine reckoning here -
Most of the "keep him off balance" moves have the same value as making the 5 point.
I made it, intending to double next turn if he does not hit me, run away or make a point.

  White (6 4) 23/13

Move 5 Orange





 
Pip: 135
 
Pip: 146
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 13/10 11/6 0.013
    0.5%  12.4%  47.1%    52.9%   5.8%   0.3%
  2 3 13/8 13/10 0.012 (-0.000)
    0.6%  12.8%  47.1%    52.9%   6.4%   0.3%
* 5 3 23/20 13/8 -0.030 (-0.042)
    0.4%  10.4%  46.0%    54.0%   5.9%   0.3%
Moving the back checkers gives White more numbers to point on a checker or double hit. Or to play behind them.


Move 5 White





 
Pip: 135
 
Pip: 138
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 8/2 8/6 -0.352
    0.2%   4.3%  40.8%    59.2%  20.3%   0.7%
* 2 3 13/5* -0.381 (-0.029)
    0.2%   5.4%  40.2%    59.8%  23.0%   0.7%
  3 1 8/2 6/4 -0.529 (-0.176)
    0.1%   3.2%  34.9%    65.1%  24.7%   0.9%
In this kind of position safety is the first thing to consider.
8/6, 8/2 is ugly but better ... I admit I would also choose Kit's play.







 
Pip: 127
 
Pip: 143
 


Cube action equityAlert: Missed double
3-Ply Money equity: 0.379
  0.8%  23.2%  59.9%    40.1%   5.6%   0.2%
Double decision Good enough: 109%  
  Too good to double: 0%  
Take decision Current Cube Doubled Cube Borderline
Equities 0.383 0.370 0.594
Proper cube action:   Double, take

6. Orange (5 4) bar/20* 13/9

  White (4 4) Can't move






 
Pip: 147
 
Pip: 134
 

7. Orange Double
  White Pass

Cube action equityAlert: Wrong double
3-Ply Money equity: 0.946
  1.3%  40.7%  77.9%    22.1%   3.1%   0.1%
Double decision Good enough: Huge  
  Too good to double: 234%  
Take decision Current Cube Doubled Cube Borderline
Equities 0.952 0.938 0.623
Proper cube action:   Too good to double, pass

I should just have waited to see how he enters ...
I was disgusted with my cube blunder on my previous roll and I made another ...

svilo wins 1 point.

This file has been generated by Snowie Professional EditionVersion 1.1, a product of Oasya SA
Output date: 9:56:10 PM, 2/26/99