White (5 2) 24/22 13/8
2. Orange (5 5) 8/3*(2) 6/1*(2)
  White (4 4) bar/17*(2)
Ah, I was just pumping my muscles for a blitz...


Move 3 Orange





 
Pip: 148
 
Pip: 164
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 bar/23 24/23 -0.347
    0.3%   9.1%  36.3%    63.7%  13.3%   0.5%
* 2 3 bar/22 -0.384 (-0.037)
    0.2%   8.7%  36.0%    64.0%  14.8%   0.6%
  3 3 bar/23 6/5 -0.420 (-0.073)
    0.3%   8.8%  35.4%    64.6%  16.3%   0.7%
In a position where I own my ace point I must leave oponent's ace point ASAP. In this kind of positions (after failed blitz), one can probably count his checkers on both ace poinnts to determine whether a position is a take or a pass ...







 
Pip: 148
 
Pip: 161
 

  White Double
4. Orange Take

Cube action equity
3-Ply Money equity: 0.339
  0.6%  14.8%  63.8%    36.2%   8.7%   0.2%
Double decision Good enough: Huge  
  Too good to double: 1%  
Take decision Current Cube Doubled Cube Borderline
Equities 0.378 0.276 0.370
Proper cube action:   Double, take

With an advantage, Kit turns it into a DMP.


  White (4 1) 13/8

Move 5 Orange





 
Pip: 143
 
Pip: 161
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 24/21(2) 13/10(2) -0.152
    0.3%   9.9%  42.4%    57.6%   9.5%   0.4%
  2 3 24/21 13/10(3) -0.167 (-0.015)
    0.4%  11.2%  41.6%    58.4%  13.4%   0.6%
* 3 3 13/10(3) 10/7 -0.175 (-0.024)
    0.5%  11.8%  41.2%    58.8%  13.5%   0.7%
Do I really need to step up? I am behind and I will give him room for 6s 5s and 4 to play behind. And this is the DMP. I am not sure about Snowie estimate here. Still, moving up makes a more compact position to play from. I still think Black needs to keep all his hitting chances and to leave White the 22 and 44 jokers.


  White (5 5) 13/8 8/3*(3)
6. Orange (5 1) bar/20 6/5
  White (6 2) 13/5*
7. Orange (4 2) bar/23 24/20*

Move 7 White





 
Pip: 135
 
Pip: 145
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 bar/20*/14 0.224
    1.1%  22.0%  61.2%    38.8%  11.0%   0.4%
* 2 3 bar/20* 8/2* 0.184 (-0.041)
    1.6%  27.6%  59.2%    40.8%  13.8%   0.6%
  3 2 bar/20* 13/7 0.128 (-0.097)
    1.3%  21.7%  56.4%    43.6%  13.4%   0.6%
It is difficult to assess that 8/2 (hitting a second checker) is better at DMP, leading in the race, when the oponent has a better board, leaving a direct shot, stripping the 8 point,
A good problem


8. Orange (4 2) bar/21 bar/23*
  White (5 3) bar/20 13/10
Well, I am a poor man, I would not just quander my racing advantage, playing 13/10.

9. Orange (5 4) 24/15*
  White (5 1) bar/20 3/2*
10. Orange (6 2) bar/23* 21/15

Move 10 White





 
Pip: 171
 
Pip: 146
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 bar/17 -0.097
    0.4%  11.7%  45.1%    54.9%  12.8%   0.4%
* 2 3 bar/20 6/3 -0.158 (-0.061)
    0.3%  10.6%  42.1%    57.9%  14.6%   0.5%
  3 2 bar/20 8/5* -0.222 (-0.125)
    0.4%  10.7%  38.9%    61.1%  21.5%   0.8%
White needs to diversify his back checkers but does not need to make lower points.


Move 11 Orange





 
Pip: 163
 
Pip: 146
 

# Ply Move Equity
  1 3 15/7 0.164
    0.6%  15.5%  58.2%    41.8%  11.8%   0.4%
* 2 3 23/15 0.134 (-0.029)
    0.5%  13.4%  56.7%    43.3%  11.8%   0.4%
  3 3 20/18 13/7 0.106 (-0.058)
    0.6%  15.2%  55.3%    44.7%  13.8%   0.6%
Afraid of ghosts. White might hit lose on his 5 point, not his 2 point. a checker on the 23 point protects against lose hitts on the 20 point. A blot on the barpoint "attacking the stack" is a serious liability. I fail to cover my bar point a second turn...
Now I am ahead and I should make my bar


  White (3 1) 8/5* 6/5
Serves me right.

12. Orange (4 3) bar/21 7/4
  White (4 2) 8/4* 6/4
13. Orange (5 1) bar/24 15/10
  White (5 5) 6/1*(2)
White just had a positional advantage to compensate for his deficit in the race....

14. Orange (3 1) Can't move
  White (5 3) 17/9
15. Orange (5 2) bar/18
  White (4 2) 20/16 9/7*
16. Orange (6 2) bar/23 10/4
  White (3 3) 20/17 16/13 5/2*(2)
Nearly as effective would be the "pure" approach safetying the bar and 17 point blot with a point on the 14 and hoping to enter quickly after the imminent tripple shooting down execution on the 16 point lonely blot. (20/14, 16/14, 7/4)

17. Orange (4 4) Can't move
  White (6 3) 20/17 13/7
18. Orange (5 4) bar/16
  White (4 3) 20/17 7/3
19. Orange (6 5) 16/5
  White (6 1) 17/11 3/2
20. Orange (2 1) 15/14* 5/3
  White (4 2) bar/23 7/3
21. Orange (3 2) 15/12 14/12
  White (3 1) 23/20 2/1
22. Orange (4 4) 13/5*(2)
Said James Bond: "It's in the wrist".

  White (4 1) Can't move
23. Orange (6 2) 12/6 12/10
  White (6 3) Can't move
24. Orange (5 4) 10/5 10/6
  White (4 2) bar/23 17/13
25. Orange (4 4) 10/6 6/2*(3)
  White (2 1) Can't move
26. Orange (6 1) 6/off 6/5
  White (2 1) Can't move
27. Orange (6 1) 5/off 5/4
  White (5 5) Can't move
28. Orange (5 1) 5/off 5/4
  White (2 1) Can't move
29. Orange (5 1) 4/off 4/3
No need to be aggressive with 2/1 here. Gammons do not count.
Kit resigned.

svilo wins 2 points.

This file has been generated by Snowie Professional EditionVersion 1.1, a product of Oasya SA
Output date: 9:56:14 PM, 2/26/99